Irene the first hurricane to hit U.S. in three years; Northeast reminded it’s also vulnerable

The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season officially ends Wednesday, having produced a total of 19 tropical storms of which seven became hurricanes, including three major hurricanes. This level of activity matched NOAA’s predictions and continues the trend of active hurricane seasons that began in 1995.

The 19 tropical storms represent the third-highest total (tied with 1887, 1995, and 2010) since records began in 1851 and is well above the average of 11. However, the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes is only slightly above the average of six and two, respectively. This year’s totals include a post-storm upgrade of Tropical Storm Nate to hurricane status, and the addition of a short-lived, unnamed tropical storm that formed in early September between Bermuda and Nova Scotia. This unnamed storm, along with several other weak, short-lived named storms, could have gone undetected without modern satellite technology.

Irene was the lone hurricane to hit the United States in 2011, and the first one to do so since Ike struck southeast Texas in 2008. Irene was also the most significant tropical cyclone to strike the Northeast since Hurricane Bob in 1991.

“Irene broke the ‘hurricane amnesia’ that can develop when so much time lapses between landfalling storms,” said Jack Hayes, Ph.D., director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “This season is a reminder that storms can hit any part of our coast and that all regions need to be prepared each and every season.”

As far as landfalling major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 with top winds of 111mph and greater) are concerned, the lull continues. 2011 marks a record six straight years without one hitting the United States. The last one to do so was Wilma in 2005. Nonetheless, wind is not the only threat with tropical systems as proven by Irene and Lee, which caused deadly and destructive flooding. On average, more than half of the fatalities related to tropical systems are due to flooding.

Hurricane Irene is an example of increasing accuracy in forecasting storm track. Its landfall in eastern North Carolina and path northward were accurately predicted more than four days in advance by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center using information from weather satellites, hurricane models, aircraft observations, and other data. NOAA’s delivery of critical environmental forecasts provided essential advance information that allowed emergency officials to plan necessary evacuations and sparked individuals to take safety precautions. But a weaker-than-anticipated Irene at landfall also highlighted the challenges that remain in forecasting storm intensity.

“Improving intensity forecasts is a focus of ongoing research and is part of NOAA’s Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project,” said Frank Marks, Ph.D., director of NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division. HFIP bridges research and operational components to better anticipate rapid changes in storm intensity and its goal to extend track forecasts from the current five days to seven days.

“Although the 2011 hurricane season has ended, our need to prepare for disasters hasn’t,” said Craig Fugate, administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. “Being prepared for all kinds of hazards, from hurricanes to blizzards to tornadoes, is a year-round activity. We encourage all members of the team, especially the public, to continue to prepare for emergencies by staying informed of forecasted weather events, making an emergency plan, and building your emergency preparedness kit. Visit Ready.gov to learn more.”

NOAA will issue its initial outlook for the 2012 hurricane season in May just prior to the official start of the season on June 1.

Beginning Today, November 29th, the National Weather Service Doppler Radar in Cleveland will receive an important upgrade to incorporate new dual-polarization technology. This upgrade will take up to 14 days to complete.

Current National Weather Service radars provide forecasters information on precipitation intensity and movement (direction and speed). Dual polarization technology adds new information about the size and shape of an object, which will improve estimates of how much rain is falling, improving flash flood detection and warnings. During winter weather, dual polarization radar can tell the difference between rain, snow and ice, which gives forecasters a much better idea of what to expect at the ground.  For more Click Here…

                     THANKSGIVING DAY
					SNOW	SNOW
YEAR	DATE	MAX	MIN	MEAN	PCPN	FALL	DEPTH
1900	29	40	31	36	0.01	0.1	0
1901	28	30	25	28	 T	 T	0
1902	27	38	32	35	0.28	0.8	0
1903	26	27	20	24	0.33	3.3	3
1904	24	47	35	41	0.02	 T	0
1905	30	25	19	22	0.06	0.6	T    

1906	29	36	29	32	 0	 0	0
1907	28	46	34	40	 T	 T	0
1908	26	66	44	55	0.01	 0	0
1909	25	40	32	36	 0	 0	0
1910	24	43	35	39	0.50	 0	0    

1911	30	32	20	26	 0	 0	0
1912	28	33	26	30	0.01	0.1	T
1913	27	45	42	44	0.03	 0	0
1914	26	61	46	54	 0	 0	0
1915	25	61	36	48	 0	 0	0    

1916	30	43	34	38	 0	 0	0
1917	29	39	32	36	 0	 0	0
1918	28	60	34	47	0.05	 0	0
1919	27	35	32	34	 T	 T	0
1920	25	41	39	40	0.05	 0	0    

1921	24	58	38	48	0.19	 0	0
1922	30	54	38	46	 0	 0	0
1923	29	46	28	37	0.51	 0	0
1924	27	43	32	38	0.01	 0	0
1925	26	38	27	32	0.10	 0	T   

1926	25	50	29	40	0.16	 0	0
1927	24	59	42	50	1.03	 0	0
1928	29	41	38	40	 T	 0	0
1929	28	32	17	24	0.16	1.9	1
1930	27	23	 8	16	0.10	1.2	8   

1931	26	36	31	34	 0	 0	0
1932	24	42	35	38	 0	 0	0
1933	30	62	40	51	 T	 0	0
1934	29	58	44	51	0.08	 0	0
1935	28	57	32	44	0.43	 T	T    

1936	26	27	20	24	0.91	11.6	9
1937	25	55	36	46	 T	 0	0
1938	24	28	24	26	0.07	0.7	2
1939	23	42	38	40	 0	 0	0
1940	21	66	43	54	0.02	 0	0    

1941	20	62	37	50	0.23	 0	0
1942	26	47	28	38	 T	 0	0
1943	25	57	28	42	 0	 0	0
1944	23	36	30	33	0.06	0.6	T
1945	22	36	20	28	 T	 T	T    

1946	28	48	25	36	 0	 0	0
1947	27	33	17	25	 T	 T	T
1948	25	50	28	39	 0	 0	0
1949	24	45	23	34	0.14	 T	0
1950	23	45	26	36	0.09	0.1	T    

1951	22	51	41	46	0.33	 0	T
1952	27	37	26	32	 T	 T	0
1953	26	33	30	32	0.03	0.3	T
1954	25	39	33	36	0.08	 T	0
1955	24	34	26	30	 0	 0	0    

1956	22	33	19	26	0.03	0.3	T
1957	28	56	48	52	0.60	 0	0
1958	27	29	22	26	0.02	0.4	T
1959	26	37	22	30	0.12	0.8	T
1960	24	51	23	37	 0	 0	0    

1961	23	49	42	46	1.32	 0	0
1962	29	63	33	48	 0	 0	0
1963	28	53	35	44	 0	 0	0
1964	26	53	35	44	0.05	 0	0
1965	25	51	36	44	0.01	 0	0    

1966	24	60	51	56	 T	 0	0
1967	23	37	32	35	 T	 T	0
1968	28	59	42	51	0.82	 0	0
1969	27	43	33	38	0.02	 T	0
1970	26	47	30	39	 0	 0	0    

1971	25	39	30	35	 0	 0	T
1972	23	36	30	33	 T	 T	2
1973	22	59	40	50	 0	 0	0
1974	28	38	27	33	 T	 T	T
1975	27	38	32	35	0.16	1.2	0    

1976	25	50	25	38	0.02	0.2	1
1977	24	45	37	41	 0	 0	0
1978	23	54	40	47	0.25	 0	0
1979	22	61	53	57	0.30	 0	0
1980	27	39	32	36	0.29	0.6	0    

1981	26	60	31	46	0.14	 0	T
1982	25	37	23	30	 0	 0	0
1983	24	63	29	46	0.02	 T	0
1984	22	37	28	33	 0	 0	T
1985	28	39	32	36	0.28	 0	0    

1986	27	47	32	40	 0	 0	0
1987	26	42	36	39	 T	 0	0
1988	24	51	24	38	 0	 0	0
1989	23	30	24	27	0.14	3.9	5
1990	22	58	37	48	0.69	 0	0    

1991	28	50	38	44	0.19	 0	0
1992	26	56	36	46	0.01	 0	0
1993	25	46	27	37	 0	 0	0
1994	24	49	20	35	 0	 0	0
1995	23	39	32	36	 T	 T	1

1996	28	30	19	25	0.10	1.7	1
1997	27	49	30	40	0.06	 0	0
1998	26	51	40	46	0.01	 0	0
1999	25	48	34	41	0.03	 0	0
2000	23	31	13	22	 0	 0	4

2001	22	53	37	45	 0 	 0	0
2002	28	30	20	25	 0	 0	2
2003	27	44	36	40	0.59	 0	0
2004	25	41	27	34	0.20	0.9	0
2005	24	36	14	25	0.17	2.4	1

2006	23	50	25	38	 0	 0	0
2007	22	47	33	40	0.77	0.6	0
2008	27 	40	25	33	 0	 0	T
2009	26	48	38	43	 T	 0	0
2010	25

As November begins, the seasonal transition towards winter is in full swing. While heavy snow, extreme cold, ice and wind routinely affect northern Ohio and Southern Michigan during winter, it is still important for residents to prepare for the dangers associated with winter weather.

In an effort to raise awareness about the potential winter dangers, Governor John R. Kasich has declared November 13 -19, 2011, as Winter Safety Awareness Week in Ohio.

Last winter La Nina played a significant role in bringing above normal snowfall to Ohio. La Nina is a phenomenon where the water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are below normal. With the main storm track remaining across the Ohio Valley. In fact, many of areas in the Ohio Valley experienced one of their snowiest winters on record. Meanwhile, across Upper Michigan, despite winter temperatures averaging close to normal, snowfall averaged well below normal with many locations recording one of their driest winters on record.

La Nina conditions are expected again through this coming winter. While forecasting a winter outlook based solely on La Nina is difficult at best, La Nina winters tend to favor below normal temperatures across the Northern Plains and a favored storm track through the Ohio Valley.

For More on Winter Safety Awareness Week, Click here…

5 % voter turnout for the Sept. primary– really, seriously?!?

For all the complaining I hear on the street about our politicians and the economy, that is an unbelievable number.

For all the ease in registering to vote, relaxed rules for absentee and early voting, etc., we have no one to blame but ourselves for not exercising one of our most basic freedoms, duties, and responsibilities.

Yes, I realize there is a battle royale between Democrats and Republicans over everything from collective bargaining to health care to a new congressional map– but c’mon, you want to see it change? Do something about it. Vote.

Don’t trust the board of elections because of a long line of shenanigans, including a current investigation into an email breach? Again, it’s an excuse.

The worst one I hear is “my vote won’t matter anyway.” Wanna bet? If everybody else stays home and YOU vote, then it’s even more likely to make a difference.  Low voter turnout simply means each and every one of us who DOES go to the polls CAN have an impact on the outcome.

Go. Vote. Now.

America’s newest polar-orbiting satellite roared into orbit this morning, setting the stage for enhanced weather data NOAA scientists will use to develop life-saving severe weather forecasts days in advance.

The NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) satellite was launched from Vandenberg Air Force, Calif., at 2:48 a.m. PDT aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II rocket. At approximately 3:45 a.m. PDT, the spacecraft separated from the Delta II to the delight of NOAA and NASA officials.

NPP is a NASA Earth-observing satellite and features five new instruments that will collect more detailed information about Earth’s atmosphere, land and oceans.  NASA will use NPP as a research mission, while NOAA will use the data for short and long-term weather forecasting and environmental monitoring.

“This year has been one for the record books for severe weather,” said Dr. Jane Lubchenco, under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “The need for improved data from NPP and the next generation satellite system under development by NASA and NOAA has never been greater.  They will enhance our ability to alert the public with as much lead time as possible.”

In 2011, data from polar-orbiting satellites like NPP allowed emergency managers and communities to prepare for severe weather events . Five days before a destructive and deadly tornado outbreak in Alabama and parts of the Southeast in April, NOAA forecasters were able to see the early atmospheric signs of the storm system developing and issue timely warnings.

NPP will orbit Earth every 102 minutes, flying 512 miles above the surface, monitoring atomospheric conditions below. The first of the NPP data will become available in about 90 days and begin replacing data from the NOAA-19 satellite in the afternoon orbit, passing over the United States during full daylight hours.

NPP is also the bridge that links NOAA’s current polar-orbiting satellites to the next generation of advanced spacecraft called the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS), which is currently set to launch in late 2016, pending funding. NPP will test how the new instruments perform before they are formally added to the JPSS satellites. NOAA’s Satellite Operations Facility in Suitland, Md., will process and distribute the data from NPP.

The originally planned launch of JPSS has been setback due to delays in funding over the past couple of years. This means there will be a data gap between the time NPP begins to degrade from the harsh space environment and the time JPSS is succsessfully placed into operation. The length of that gap depends on future years funding and the agency remains optimistic that current year Congressional support will carry over into a final appropriation and outyear funding.

Dr. Kathryn Sullivan, assistant secretary of commerce for environmental observation and prediction and NOAA deputy administrator, hailed the successful launch of NPP as a credit to the long-standing partnership between NOAA and NASA.

“This partnership works,” Sullivan said. “For more than 40 years, we have worked together fielding observation satellites to provide the nation with critical environmental intelligence to protect lives and livelihoods.”

This October marks the 10 year anniversary of the deadly October 24th 2001 tornado outbreak which spawned 10 tornadoes across our area of northern Indiana, southwest lower Michigan and Northwest Ohio. Two people died during this event and numerous others were injured. Early warnings and proactive measures helped save countless lives.

A summary of the October 24th, 2001 event, including damage surveys and a timeline of events can be found on National Weather Service webpage at
Click Here…

The Fall months provide a secondary severe weather season across our area. While Spring and early Summer are considered the prime time for severe weather outbreaks, Autumn can also see significant severe weather episodes. As a matter of fact, the largest and deadliest tornado outbreaks over the last 30 years have occurred in the Fall. The two strongest tornadoes to occur in our County Warning Area (CWA) of northern Indiana, southwest lower Michigan and northwest Ohio since 1980 have been EF4 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale. Both of these strong tornadoes occurred in Van Wert Ohio, one on November 10th, 2002, and the other on February 18th, 1992.  Since 1980, there have only been 7 fatalities from tornadoes in our CWA. However, 6 of these 7 occurred in the months of October and November. This proves you need to be ready for severe weather and tornadoes in any month!

Since 2001, there have been other significant October tornado events. Nappanee Indiana saw an EF3 tornado occur in the late evening on October 18th, 2007. This tornado moved through the eastern half of the town, destroying many homes and businesses. Fortunately there were only minor injuries. On October 26th, 2010, an outbreak of 13 tornadoes occurred across the KIWX CWA. While the number of tornadoes exceeded those of the October 24th, 2001 event, the damage rating associated with these tornadoes were not as high. All 13 tornadoes in the 2010 event were rated EF0 (5) or EF1 (8). No strong tornadoes (EF2 or higher) occurred. Despite the large number of tornadoes, no fatalities were recorded. More information on this event can also be found on National Weather Service website at
Click here…

Take this time to review your plan of action in the event of severe weather. Remember to be prepared and pay attention to Hazardous Weather Outlooks leading up to a severe weather event, Severe Weather Watches issued hours before the event, and Severe Weather Warnings when severe weather is imminent or occurring. Don’t take warnings for granted, take them seriously.

• To provide observational meteorological data, usually consisting of daily maximum and minimum temperatures, snowfall, and 24-hour precipitation totals, required to define the climate of the United States and to help measure long-term climate changes
• To provide observational meteorological data in near real-time to support forecast, warning and other public service programs of the NWS.

Click on link below to watch the countdown. Values updated by 5am from previous days precipitation…

Click Here…

I got an email today about getting ready for home ready for winter weather. It’s a good reminder that winter is just around the corner and will be here before we know it. Take a look at this message, there might be some tips you find useful.

Verbatim:

As a meteorologist, you are trusted by your viewers to give them trustworthy weather tips.  As an addition to your forecasts coming up this winter, below are some roof tips that would work well when talking about preparing for colder days.  Please let us know if you would like to include these in your segments:

As the winter months approach, our homes first measure of protection against rain and snow is the Roof. GAF, North America’s largest Roofing Manufacturer, offers these tips for how to get your roof ready for the cold winter.

1. Start off by checking the roof framing structure to make sure it is not compromised. Visually scan the roof for any sagging or uneven areas.
2. Inspect the gutter systems to make sure they are not clogged with branches, leaves, or other debris.
3. Make sure that gutters are fastened properly and are tight and secure so that they don’t cause overflow and build-up or fall off the fascia board.
4. Check the valleys of the roof to ensure that they are also free and clear of debris that can add weight to the roof and also act as a barrier to rain and snow.
5. Metal flashing should also be used around roof vents, pipes, skylights, and chimneys. One of the most common causes for roofing leaks is due to problems with flashing.
6. Walk around to carefully inspect the shingles on the roof – look for curling edges, missing granules, etc.

Regards
Kay Kelly